Some perspective on eras and technologies
The purpose of
this section is to provide a brief indication of technocapitalism’s place in
the development of technology.
Technocapitalism
involves the emergence of new technologies that are likely to revolutionize
most aspects of life and work. Those
new technologies are likely to be hallmarks of the twenty-first century. Some of their effects, good and bad, are
already becoming noticeable.
Every era is
distinguished by the emergence of new technologies that have profound effects
on many human activities. The social
and economic impacts of those new technologies are often irreversible. The new technologies then prevail until they
are replaced by discoveries that prove to be more effective.
The emergence of a
new technology is usually a matter of how strongly it collapses time, cost,
space, or saves lives. New discoveries
that can substantially reduce the time, cost, distance, or life-loss involving
an existing technology are bound to prevail.
This dynamic has been at the core of technological change throughout
human history.
The new technologies that will be hallmarks
of technocapitalism are bound to change radically what current technology
accomplishes. Biotechnology, for
example, is likely to revolutionize existing medical practice, by introducing
new therapies based on discoveries in genetics and emerging fields, such as
proteomics. As a result, many of
today’s surgical procedures may become unnecessary. Replacement organs may be grown in laboratories, instead of
waiting for donors. Biopharmacology is
likely to change radically the pharmaceutical industry, by providing
medications that precisely target individual genetic characteristics for
illnesses, instead of the current hit-or-miss, one-size-fits-all
medications.
Nanotechnology is bound to revolutionize miniaturization. It may, for example, change radically many
aspects of medical care, by introducing new and very precise ways to diagnose
problems, deliver medications and make surgery less invasive. In electronics, nanotechnology may
eventually allow microscopic processors to have the power of today’s
supercomputers. This may allow vast
computing power to be placed most anywhere, making it possible to automatically
monitor and adjust many processes that today are done manually or not at
all.
The interface of
software, digital networks and nanotechnology may eventually make all current
wiring unnecessary on a global scale, providing a new frontier of completely
wireless ground communications.
Similarly, the interface of software with nanotechnology and fuel cell
technologies might eventually replace completely the current electrical power
supply infrastructure, as buildings become self-sufficient by generating the
power they use through their own fuel cells.
These potential future developments may seem revolutionary now, but technological changes in past eras were no less so. The introduction of steam power in the nineteenth century, for example, revolutionized industrial production, travel and urban living, collapsing time, cost and distance in a way that people accustomed to sailboats, wind and water mills found hard to anticipate. Similarly, the invention and introduction of aviation in the twentieth century allowed a further collapse of time, cost and distance that amazed those who grew up traveling by rail. Not so long ago, the introduction of personal computers collapsed the time and cost of writing and printing documents in ways that astonished those who had worked with carbon paper and typewriters most of their lives.
In all such cases, there was always a lag between the time of a path-breaking discovery or invention, and the time of its commercial introduction. This happens because it is often difficult to anticipate the uses of a new invention. Often, a half-century or more passed before some commercial or social use could be found. This characteristic earmarks the difference between invention and innovation. The latter often includes improvements or adjustments of existing inventions, although there have also been many cases where innovations inspired new discoveries. The former usually includes research that is more uncertain, risky or basic, in terms of any possible success. The lag between invention and usage may explain why, in the outline below, key inventions were introduced as new technologies decades after their discovery.
In the case of technocapitalism, however, we may see a speedier introduction of new discoveries to commercial and social uses. The pressures introduced by the need to sustain continuous invention and innovation, and wider access to research networks, may well make it possible to shorten the time between discovery and use. It is therefore likely that we may see new technologies emerge in the twenty-first century based on inventions not yet discovered.
Eras and vital new
technologies
Technocapitalism
(early 21st century to ?):
Biotechnology, nanotechnology, software, digital networks, other
technologies (?).
Late Industrial
Capitalism (mid- to late 20th century): Petrochemicals, electronics, computing, aviation/aerospace.
Industrial
Capitalism (late 19th to mid-20th century): Chemicals, electricity, internal combustion
engine, automotive technology.
Early Industrial
Capitalism (early to late 19th century): Steel, machinery, steam power, railroads.
Copyright
© Luis Suarez-Villa